National Transport Authority (NTA) officials have confirmed that planned public transport fare increases are expected to lead to a drop in passenger usage, citing internal research showing that every 10 per cent fare hike results in a 3 per cent decline in passenger numbers.

Speaking before the Oireachtas Transport Committee on Wednesday, Jeremy Ryan, the NTA’s Director of Public Transport Services, acknowledged the impact of price adjustments on patronage. The committee meeting followed the NTA’s recent announcement of a planned 15 per cent average fare increase for adult passengers on Public Service Obligation (PSO) routes scheduled for January 2027. Under the proposals, the standard 90-minute Leap card fare in the Greater Dublin Area is set to rise from €2.00 to €2.30.

NTA Deputy Chief Executive Hugh Creegan told politicians that the fare adjustments are necessary to help address an operating gap exceeding €800 million. According to NTA figures, while passenger journeys reached a record 363 million in 2025, fare revenue fell from €667 million in 2019 to €576 million in 2025. Over the same period, total operating costs increased from €971 million to €1.379 billion due to service expansions and inflationary pressures.

During the committee session, Chair Michael Murphy asked whether research had been conducted regarding the potential drop in public transport patronage following fare adjustments. Ryan confirmed the 3 per cent fall-off per 10 per cent fare rise metric, but stated he was optimistic that overall passenger numbers would not drop significantly next year because many urban services are currently operating at maximum capacity.

The projections faced criticism from committee members. Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee questioned where displaced commuters would go, warning that higher fares risk driving commuters back into private cars and worsening congestion on already busy road networks, particularly in North Dublin. Other committee members noted that fare increases on specific routes could exceed 30 per cent, criticizing the lack of prior consultation before the announcement.