The Central Bank of Ireland has cautioned that the State's underlying budget deficit, which excludes windfall corporate tax receipts, is on course to reach €20 billion by 2030 due to rapid growth in public spending.

Addressing the Oireachtas Committee on Budgetary Oversight on Wednesday, Robert Kelly, Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank, warned that while Ireland's headline fiscal balance remains in surplus, the State's underlying financial position has deteriorated. He noted that the underlying deficit grew from €800 million in 2019 to €7.2 billion in 2025, driven by a 55 per cent surge in state expenditure.

Kelly highlighted that bridging this widening deficit through temporary corporate tax revenues creates a structural exposure for the Irish economy. Excess corporation tax receipts currently represent 15 per cent of overall tax revenue, leaving public finances heavily concentrated among a small number of multinational companies.

Under the spending trajectory outlined in the government's Summer Economic Statement, the Central Bank projects the underlying deficit will expand to €20 billion by the end of the decade. Kelly added that between 2028 and 2030, the State would need to borrow close to €8 billion to fulfill committed contributions to its state wealth vehicles, the Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund.